Three years ago, I did a report for a technical communication class about avian influenza. When I made the report/presentation, one of the scary “what if” situations was if avian flu infected a pig and then infected a human. It appears that may have happened along with mutating to be human-to-human airborne. Pigs are a lot closer to humans anatomy-wise than birds; a lot of human drugs are tested on pigs and even some transplants are performed between the two. A strain of swine flu could be better adapted to kill humans than avian flu.
Currently in Mexico City, 60 people have died from this new strain of swine flu. About 8% of people that have been infected there have died. This isn’t in some backwoods part of Mexico with crap healthcare. This was in Mexico City. For comparison, the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic that shortened the average lifespan of the US citizen by 10 years had a mortality rate of 2.5%. In the US, 8 people have been infected with swine flu; 7 have recovered; 1 is too early to tell. This may be that the medical care is better in the US, but it could also be an entirely different strain. If it is a different strain, then this number could have no bearing on the Mexican version.
The Mexican cases have been resistant to shotgun-blast type vaccines like Tamiflu and it takes a while to manufacture a targeted vaccine, so it looks like it’s already developed immunity to general flu vaccines. Flu pandemics have a habit of targeting the healthiest people too. During the Spanish Flu pandemic, healthy people in their 20s died when their immune systems went into overdrive, speeding up the virus’s course. Pneumonia was also a very common cause of death with people infected with the virus. In Mexico today, the group that is showing the highest rate of infection is people aged 25-45.
I wouldn’t suggest taping up your home or wearing a medical mask when shopping at the mall, but keep a close eye on the spread of the virus. Don’t travel to any of the affected areas in Mexico or the US. If you come down with flu symptoms, do NOT go to work.
Here’s my college report on Avian Flu for some light reading: Avian Flu Report
And an excerpt from my report:
The H5N1 subtype of avian influenza is
particularly dangerous due to its ability to
change more rapidly than other strains. This
characteristic is due to its capability of easily
infecting other animals besides birds. When the
virus infects other animals, they could be
carrying other viruses that would not be present
in birds. One of the animals that can pass
influenza easily to humans is pigs. After the
initial outbreak of the Spanish Flu in 1918, the
virus infected the pig population and now the
versions of the flu that infect pigs can be easily
transmitted to humans. Since modern pig flu
viruses can easily infect humans, a pig infected
with two strains could create a strain capable of
conducting human-to-human infection
Tom News, Science avian flu, swine flu